I've said this to several folks and so I may as well say it with the puter:

the SPD/Green coalition will win the election on 18 September. They will not only win, but they will also increase their majority from 3 seats to 10.

So there.

Basically, the recent polls indicate that things are going Schröder's way, but I'm thinking beyond the polls. I think that the average German political commentator (with whom I am far out of step on this) is thinking in terms of *parties* rather than personalities. I think Germany has made a quiet but clear transition from party politics to personality politics and, therefore, think the strong personalities of Schröder (SPD) and Fischer (Green) will push them over the weaker personality of Merkel (CDU). The FDP leader (Westerwelle) has been all but absent from the tv campaign, for some reason, and this hurts the conservative coalition chances.

(I suspect Westerwelle is laying low in no small part because, as an openly gay man, he's afraid of driving away the far right types his party courts now and then.)

So. You heard it here first.